Jake Patterson has doubled down; like the ZoSea takeover of the ASP, which is now privately owned lock, stock and barrel the Plan B is there is no Plan B. It’s victory or total annihilation. Plan A is for a grandstand finish at 6ft Kirra. But why in the lairds name he passed on three days of overhead Point surf is absolutely baffling for long term local surfers.

I spoke to a couple of them today. They are well known but asked to remain anonymous in case ZoSea operatives visit them with baseball bats in the wee hours of the night. The Problem, said one, “is that Jake is from WA and is  taking advice from Kelly who’s from Florida. Yesterday was not a Kirra day. There’ll be repercussions if this thing fizzles out”.

Why would Kelly delay and throw curve balls like a half-arsed day at Kirra into a Rnd 2 mix? A low percentage play that culminated in the unseemly spectacle of new World Champ Joel Parkinson paddling around in a state of confusion in a slopped out mess before sanity reigned and the whole thing was put out of it’s misery for the day.

Could Kelly be really capable of engineering such a colossal mind fuck for Parko to start his title defence with? Knowing full well a Rnd2 knock-out for the champ would effectively throw a mission impossible vibe into the Title defence before it even made it off the blocks. Dragging this thing out interminably suits Slater’s game plan down to the ground. Increase the pressure Parko must be feeling facing a hungry local wild card coming back from battles with wicked women and other Cooly-ghetto demons. And Parko has wanted to surf. He is twitching like a live wire to get down and dirty with Slater again at the business end of the comp.

Could we take a minute to provide an official alternative forecast for the comp, based on the latest modelling? OK. But first a quick history lesson which might provide some backstory for fans if we do end up at Kirra for the finale.

Kirra is in QLD, in case you live overseas are new to surfing and hadn’t heard. QLD, for a long time has been a place where developers with big dreams have been encouraged to forge ahead regardless of the consequences. A QLD developer plans to build a larger than life copy of the Titanic.

During the 80′s a QLD development consortium made plans to turn Kirra Point into a giant marina, effectively destroying the wave by building giant breakwalls out at right angles to the Point. This of course was met with horror by the local surfing fraternity , including Kirra local and World Champion Wayne Rabbit Bartholomew.

Bugs hatched a plan to give Kirra some value in the eyes of politicians by holding an event there which would put Kirra on the mainstream media map and act as a bulwark against developer ambition.

In 1992 the first Kirra Pro was held at the Point. Loudspeakers were used to call heats, freesurfers were allowed to share the Point with comp surfers and the whole thing climaxed in perfect head high tubes courtesy of Cyclone Esau. That comp was won by Munga Barry.

Following events seemed to constantly score epic cyclone surf and the legend of Kirra grew in stature as the event developed, becoming part of the Pro Tour in 1996 when Shane Beschen scored his famous three perfect tens. Kelly Slater developed enough of a relationship with it to call it his favourite wave.

Kirra’s future as the worlds best wave seemed safe.

It wasn’t though. In a misguided move spearheaded by local councillor Peter Turner the Big Groyne was shortened by 30 metres in 1996. This was followed by the commencement of the sand pumping regime in 2000/2001 which formed the Super-Bank. Together these two events radically altered the special sand bar bathmetry and angle that allowed Kirra to be a consistently makable high speed tube-ride. It became a close-out.  Long-time local surfers like Rabbit, Bruce Lee and Wayne Deane are continually frustrated by a surf media with short memories staffed with kooks whose knowledge of Kirra extends only to the last swell. Kirra is not back.

The Super-Bank became a surf media and industry darling on the Back of the Coolangatta super-kids and the QuikPro was transitioned to Snapper, with which wave it has become synonymous. Kirra has lain largely dormant, buried in the sands of human intervention. A Final there would put the struggle to Bring Back Kirra Point back on the political agenda.

Now, lets take a look at the forecast and see if Jake has blown it or whether he’s holding until he can see the white of their eyes. The windfield associated with the slow moving high pressure system in the Tasman is becoming disjointed, moving north under the influence of TC Sandra and contracting to the E’ward due to a low pressure trough near the North Island. There’s enough juice in it to hold surf in the pulsey 3ft range over the weekend with wave periods beefing a notch. They’ll get some surfing done over the weekend with winds favourable from the SE.

The big mystery bag is the potential from TC Sandra. TC Sandra is still meandering E to ENE in the far Coral Sea. It’s track remains uncertain but a coastal crossing now appears unlikely. A QLD armageddon scenario would not be pretty for a state suffering from successive storm events. Whether and how quickly TC Sandra comes into the swell window is still being haggled over by weather models. Jake isn’t being advised by any long term locals so unless him and Slater are channeling powers unknown it’s a high stakes play. Best case is the cyclone steams into the swell window Sun/Mon giving 6ft surf Tues/Wed.  Best case.

It’s Sydney or the Bush for Jake and the ZoSea deal.

Don’t flinch now Jake, even if you do have another bald head breathing down your neck.

Don’t know why, just seems like the kind of thing RK Slater might identify with.

* An Aussie colloquial expression meaning success or abject failure.

There was rippable surf all day again.

Forecast track maps for TC Sandra. You feeling lucky Jake?

featured, Joel Parkinson, Kelly Slater, kirra, QuikPro